Master-planned communities: Once a pioneer now barely a player as sales plummet in California

3 communities in the state make closely watched list

California boasts some of the best known, largest and most lucrative master-planned communities, from Irvine to Valencia, during the past five decades.

But the boom days are done. At least for now. 

The state had only three master-planned communities land on John Burns Research and Consulting’s closely watched top 50 list, compared to five in 2025 – and eight in 2019.

SALES OFF 60% SINCE 2019

It’s an about-face from the heydays, when Irvine Ranch – the poster child for master-planned development – dominated the list for years.

In 2025, the state’s three best-selling master-planned communities – Ontario Ranch, Riverstone in Fresno and Great Park in Irvine (see table, below) – reported a total of 2,046 homes sold, a 26% decline from a year earlier and off 60% since 2019.

How far has the state fallen? The nation’s top two-selling master-planned communities, The Villages and Lakewood Ranch in Florida, each outsold the combined sales of the three California communities.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, here is one, sort of: Great Park in Irvine enjoyed a 39% increase in home sales last year, just good enough for 17^th place in the U.S.

LONE STAR AND THE SUNSHINE STATE SHINE BRIGHT

California was a longtime leader of master-planned communities, largely with Irvine and Valencia, but Florida and Texas have become the major players.

Thirty-one of the top 50 master planned communities were in Florida and Texas in 2025. 

Nationwide, the top 50 master-planned communities had a combined 32,796 homes sold in 2025, a 5% drop compared to a year earlier. The figure is far from the record 39,000 homes in 2021.

With higher mortgage rates and near-record prices, affordability has become a big concern for many home shoppers. 

So, developers are responding, offering incentives of about 7% on homes sold in California, according to John Burns and Consulting. But even with attractive incentives, master-planned communities – like homes across the board – are struggling.

Feature photo: Mission Viejo, a decades-old master-planned community in Orange County.

A firefighter checks a charred house after flames roared through from the Eaton Fire. ADOBE STOCK

A year after the LA wildfires: Few rebuilds and much uncertainty

As Los Angeles continues to deal with the long and painful recovery from the devastating and fast-moving wildfires a year ago, the rest of the state should view the tragedy as a warning.

California has almost 1.26 million homes with moderate or greater risk from wildfires, more than four times the number of homes in second-place Colorado, according to Cotality. That’s about as many homes as people who live in San Diego, the second-largest city in the state.

From Redding to Redlands in Southern California, the state has almost $800 billion in homes at an increased risk from wildfires, five times more than Colorado. That risk has led to a huge increase in homeowners’ and renters’ insurance.  

A LONG PROCESS TO REBUILD

A big challenge, possibly even more than the loss of homes and huge insurance risks, is the mountain-like climb to rebuild, including the emotional, financial and patience needed for the process.

More than a year after the Eaton and Pacific Palisades fires, only six homes have been rebuilt, according to Cotality-collected information from the Los Angeles County Building Department.

Blame government red-tape, insurance company delays and even homeowners who are trying to determine their next – and best – step. For numerous reasons, home building has  been extremely slow.

Almost 10,600 homes were destroyed by the fires. But the county has only received applications to rebuild 2,700 homes, with only 1,100 permits issued. Yep, fewer than 10% of the homes destroyed have started the lengthy – and rather pricey – rebuild process. 

INVESTORS LURK WHILE MORE OWNERS MOVE ON

The ongoing red tape and the slow-as-molasses insurance payouts are providing a serious issue for those affected – as well as for others in Southern California and, in the long term, the state. Fire-destroyed homes on empty lots don’t provide housing – or property tax revenue for the financially strapped state.

And, quite honestly, many of the former buyers just want to move on. About 700 fire-devastated lots have been sold since the fires – with investors buying three of every four, as they embrace a buying opportunity.

As data gets crunched, it’s become increasingly clear that the devastation of the wildfires has a far-reaching effect, long after the flames and smoke are gone.

Another wildfire – perhaps like the Carr Fire in Shasta County that devastated Redding or the Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa – would likely have an even larger economic impact today, as the state deals with the property insurance crisis and much uncertainty.

Foreclosures inched higher, but are far from the peak in 2010. SHUTTERSTOCK

Foreclosures climb to six-year high in 2025

California had the most foreclosures in six years, as a dismal economy and disappointing housing market continues to hurt homeowners.

The state had 34,002 foreclosures filed in 2025, a 2% increase compared to a year earlier – and the most since 2019, according to ATTOM Data. 

Bad but not awful. The current rate of foreclosures is far from the Great Recession, but there are some pockets of worry. 

San Diego had the largest increase in foreclosures at 19% compared to a year ago, followed by Sacramento and Fresno at 9% and 8%, respectively. Los Angeles had a 2% drop in foreclosure notices (see table, below).

PERSPECTIVE MATTERS

Wanna-be buyers hoping for a boost in foreclosures, which often come with much-lower prices, will be disappointed since economists and housing experts expect the filings to remain low, especially since so many homeowners have a ton of equity.

The current foreclosure activity is miniscule compared to the housing market collapse in 2010, when almost 547,000 homes entered foreclosure – or one of every four homes. Today, one of every 427 homeowners was affected by a foreclosure filing.

In 2010, almost 45,600 homes entered foreclosure every month, or more foreclosures in 2025.

Nationwide, ATTOM reported 367,460 homes entered foreclosures proceedings in 2025, a 14% increase compared to a year ago – but down 25% in 2019. A record 2.9 million homes entered foreclosure in 2010.

The bump in foreclosures is the latest evidence of a “continued normalization of the housing market following several years of historically low levels,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “While filings, starts, and repossessions all rose compared to 2024, foreclosure activity remains well below pre-pandemic norms and a fraction of what we saw during the last housing crisis. The data suggests that today’s uptick is being driven more by market recalibration than widespread homeowner distress, with strong equity positions and more disciplined lending continuing to limit risk.”

It’s also important to note that a foreclosure filing doesn’t always lead to a repossession of the property. Some homeowners work with their lenders to catch-up on their missed payments or may even use a short sale to move the property.

City	Foreclosures ’25	Foreclosures ’24	% change
California	34,002	33,387	+2.0%
Bakersfield	1,283	1,280	+0.23%
Fresno	1,080	1,000	+8.0%
Los Angeles	9,351	9,533	-1.9%
Riverside	6,498	6,106	+6.4%
Sacramento	2,567	2,350	+9.2%
San Diego	2,073	1,734	+19.6%
San Francisco	3,439	3,464	-0.7%
San Jose	670	722	-7.2%

Source: ATTOM Data

More sellers than buyers. A lot more

Despite falling mortgage rates and lower prices, it’s still a buyer’s market.

California has about 25% more home sellers than shoppers in January, the latest evidence of an out-of-whack housing market, according to Redfin.